Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1b1e78205c2ea08a92cd1248d68f3ae55ba06d9e827729454987f1c0b70b47d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 2c | 1,374$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 503.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.29 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 330.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 80c | 250$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 221.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 219.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…366ebacked Yes | 18c | 186.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 80c | 175.84$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 165.12$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…4089backed No | 79c | 157.47$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 141.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 15c | 134.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 130.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…48edbacked Yes | 19c | 117.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…c5d0backed Yes | 15c | 108.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 20c | 97.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 82.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…98ebbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 46.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 77c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 79c | 20.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 77c | 18.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.