Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4e43869d973bbeb2feba5a986902b62665a92f885e9f1067f07520fa06ba2fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 57c | 598.97$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.25 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 309.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 79c | 289.76$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.37 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 26c | 275.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 211.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 40c | 208.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 206.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 198$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 197.17$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 175.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 15c | 166$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 150.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 144.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 71c | 141.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 124.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed No | 75c | 119.94$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…c5d0backed Yes | 35c | 104$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 101.67$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 43c | 101$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 59c | 100.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 96.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 95.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 59c | 93.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 65c | 93.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked Yes | 40c | 93.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 56c | 89.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 88.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 81.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 38c | 75.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 72.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 42c | 71.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 70.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 66.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 65.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 63.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 20c | 57.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 35c | 56.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 52.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 54c | 48.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 59c | 48.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…48edbacked Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 62c | 47.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 65c | 45.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 44.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 44.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 41.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 34c | 40.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 37c | 38.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 38.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…918bbacked Yes | 66c | 37.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 58c | 36.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 31c | 33.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 29.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 70c | 29.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 44c | 27.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 54c | 26.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 25.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…2419backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 67c | 23.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 69c | 22.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked No | 68c | 21.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 50c | 20.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…748cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.