Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50d7546a8c16b70031971455e7368bb1a667e1b31be8b24c8f54cc0014e4914e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 338$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 299.78$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.91 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 80c | 165.26$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 159.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 56c | 159.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 68c | 146.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 31c | 132.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 132.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 60c | 130.7$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 71c | 110.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 98.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked No | 69c | 91.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 21c | 89.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 21c | 88.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 61c | 83.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 83.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 79.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 76c | 78.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 28c | 65.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1e…b728backed No | 63c | 63.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 20c | 61.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 37c | 60.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 34c | 59.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 59.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 56.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 30c | 54.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 51.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 25c | 50.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 49.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 25c | 46.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed No | 78c | 44.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 34c | 39.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…48edbacked Yes | 32c | 38.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 36.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 40c | 35.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 77c | 33.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 32.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…c5d0backed Yes | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 30.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 64c | 27.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 75c | 26.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 24.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 80c | 24.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 23.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…8099backed No | 65c | 20.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 19.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 18.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 18.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 15.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 78c | 13.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.