Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1b48afdceae535d1be7d96c1b37be21867934b390300ac37fe68d156990ed28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Yandexof Tundra Esports, Team Yandex
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Yandex | 34c | 3,333$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,186.45 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Yandex | 40c | 2,869$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Tundra Esports | 76c | 2,311$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.2 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Tundra Esports | 68c | 1,535$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Team Yandex | 34c | 1,507$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.3 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Tundra Esports | 65c | 1,454$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.13 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Tundra Esports | 51c | 1,180$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 1,160$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.6 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tundra Esports | 2c | 964.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 870.65$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.69 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Tundra Esports | 75c | 765.21$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.45 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Yandex | 35c | 399.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Team Yandex | 34c | 399.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.99 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Tundra Esports | 66c | 220.35$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Team Yandex | 34c | 215.92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.98 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…107dbacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 197.31$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Team Yandex | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Yandex | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…59a5backed Team Yandex | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b6…ebb8backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6a…56d6backed Team Yandex | 37c | 140$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 132.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Tundra Esports | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Tundra Esports | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Tundra Esports | 39c | 67.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Yandex | 55c | 63.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Yandex | 63c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ae…c34fbacked Tundra Esports | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 37.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…5e83backed Team Yandex | 72c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Tundra Esports | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.