Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1cc8c62cf413685d3a3228999655cd79b2a381ef73f449ffd4991804c4e54b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Under | 45c | 223.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 50c | 201.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Over | 55c | 183.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…617ebacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Over | 45c | 90.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ad…79a8backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Under | 46c | 47.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…5ff1backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Over | 52c | 38.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 218 | 51.8%113 W · 105 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Under | 56c | 31.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…b8ffbacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports (BO3)BetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerBetBoom Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.