TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$136,102
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$170,669

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,102 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac0d…b006backed Tundra Esports50c19,777$9,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,811.810661.3%65 W · 41 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed BetBoom Team49c17,237$8,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,855.543953.8%21 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked BetBoom Team49c15,015$7,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,695.4115852.5%83 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed BetBoom Team45c12,371$5,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,833.485558.2%32 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed Tundra Esports55c9,433$5,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,188.156750.7%34 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed BetBoom Team54c6,475$3,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,986.8719047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ed…6ac6backed Tundra Esports56c5,432$3,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,024.187855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked Tundra Esports2c5,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110378.1%3 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-73.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked Tundra Esports54c4,999$2,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.192254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed BetBoom Team45c3,645$1,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,988.1445139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…51ebbacked Tundra Esports50c3,095$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-77.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Tundra Esports17c2,942$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.4480443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports36c2,917$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.141,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20a5…de1bbacked Tundra Esports55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3755358.5%31 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BetBoom Team48c2,086$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.432,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Tundra Esports57c1,975$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.7519246.4%89 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b5c…99e1backed Tundra Esports56c1,750$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.852152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Tundra Esports55c1,504$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82556848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a40…9af0backed Tundra Esports8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Tundra Esports45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012851.6%66 W · 62 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1034…b26dbacked Tundra Esports56c1,094$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.887146.5%33 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed BetBoom Team55c1,071$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.9619743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed BetBoom Team46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54010745.8%49 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed BetBoom Team53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked Tundra Esports51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016149.7%80 W · 81 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x197b…7477backed Tundra Esports4c958.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.646633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Tundra Esports49c833.39$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41223465%152 W · 82 L-1.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed BetBoom Team44c699.4$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.6628341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed BetBoom Team56c664.67$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.6718661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked Tundra Esports55c636.96$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.334856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed BetBoom Team45c636.73$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.5755751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed BetBoom Team60c629.41$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.76666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd333…2a71backed Tundra Esports47c556.03$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1bc…bd81backed Tundra Esports55c545.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…e8b1backed BetBoom Team49c527.1$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.825540%22 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed BetBoom Team57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2155750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ac…188dbacked Tundra Esports57c489.35$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.932646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed BetBoom Team46c476.6$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.2317950.3%90 W · 89 L+14.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Tundra Esports53c464.27$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.3546451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x091e…3432backed BetBoom Team49c453.06$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.0611452.6%60 W · 54 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Tundra Esports51c450$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.585851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1946…e255backed Tundra Esports57c449.35$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.251361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa188…3fccbacked Tundra Esports52c443.75$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.654967.3%33 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8afa…1443backed BetBoom Team46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.78862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked BetBoom Team42c428.92$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.781353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x217f…5d10backed Tundra Esports16c394.94$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.69128.6%26 W · 65 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeceb…8d0dbacked BetBoom Team53c378.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.151637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed Tundra Esports47c370$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.122033.6%74 W · 146 L-0.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed BetBoom Team57c347.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.8534667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x366c…8184backed BetBoom Team55c342.47$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed BetBoom Team58c339.59$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.5962650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed BetBoom Team78c327.5$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5310340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed BetBoom Team58c299.99$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12559250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked BetBoom Team52c288$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.2455251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed BetBoom Team58c260$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.231545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d8e…b1c7backed Tundra Esports56c232.11$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.981346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a37…869bbacked Tundra Esports50c230$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1155261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Tundra Esports5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1019251.6%99 W · 93 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04e5…b8ffbacked BetBoom Team50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002250%11 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Tundra Esports55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7819856.1%111 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad25…5473backed BetBoom Team46c199.99$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1093842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd19e…e997backed BetBoom Team47c191.33$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.333650%18 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bdc…1669backed Tundra Esports24c179.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.41060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce7a…fef0backed Tundra Esports56c147.45$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5719145.5%87 W · 104 L+13.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd855…c823backed BetBoom Team53c143.4$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.43557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d60…be72backed BetBoom Team48c134.6$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.219949.2%98 W · 101 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b04…6632backed Tundra Esports12c130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.82733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Tundra Esports56c125.86$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.838751.7%45 W · 42 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Tundra Esports53c108.9$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.551520%3 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-55.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f3e…f77fbacked Tundra Esports47c102.12$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed BetBoom Team59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4164149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Tundra Esports51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5035370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x040f…e98cbacked BetBoom Team53c93.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.946046.7%28 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb719…dacbbacked BetBoom Team52c93$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.644346.5%20 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9bd…4dacbacked Tundra Esports40c90$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.653145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Tundra Esports49c88.87$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4586949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb358…122cbacked BetBoom Team58c86.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.165635.7%20 W · 36 L-10.2wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-39.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x33a8…2a71backed BetBoom Team43c82.07$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.784355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3647…6250backed BetBoom Team62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.657538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Tundra Esports55c78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.977941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x158f…09f1backed BetBoom Team66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.764942.9%21 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x047a…941ebacked Tundra Esports42c69.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.523640.7%96 W · 140 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44c7…9bdebacked Tundra Esports57c66.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked Tundra Esports47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.24238.1%16 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed BetBoom Team59c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.55837.9%22 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Tundra Esports36c59.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217452.7%39 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76d7…5adcbacked Tundra Esports57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aa7…1b7ebacked BetBoom Team49c51.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.221361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2011…f296backed BetBoom Team44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd36…873bbacked Tundra Esports35c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.540539.3%159 W · 246 L-0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed BetBoom Team61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1823650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked BetBoom Team47c48.72$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8211955.5%66 W · 53 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf43f…54a6backed Tundra Esports42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2214…74ebbacked BetBoom Team53c47.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.232334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd207…c366backed Tundra Esports56c46.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262733.3%9 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-37.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BetBoom Team43c45.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7689440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f2a…e0d7backed BetBoom Team47c44.53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.64641.3%19 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3942…736ebacked BetBoom Team69c43.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa49…6330backed Tundra Esports54c42.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2311157.7%64 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked BetBoom Team47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5516665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.