Asian League · resolved market
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1dc8806fd07268194cd19e54f79a2e0be051f991a3dd1256c25b5a50b63fb05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 11,547$8,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,259.78 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Over | 21c | 9,353$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.02 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 20c | 1,774$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 79c | 798.4$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.73 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 19c | 789.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 75c | 652.13$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…e03cbacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 28c | 357.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 317.86$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.89 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Over | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…4529backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 23c | 145.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 28c | 141.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 46c | 108.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 101.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe452…4de3backed Over | 46c | 62.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…99a1backed Over | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 56c | 53.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…789abacked Under | 66c | 50.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6852…ce4dbacked Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 77c | 39.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 192 | 68.2%131 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 48c | 30.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Over | 64c | 26.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Over | 80c | 25.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e6…f081backed Over | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 80c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)Kashima Antlers won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.