Asian League · resolved market
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd50dcdefb2f8e85d2e61c709721c2f07386461faf992565a7ec20f9601c22e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 1,059$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.3 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 47c | 918.99$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.69 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 52c | 113.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 46c | 111.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e6…f081backed Under | 55c | 89.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Under | 60c | 67.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Over | 38c | 49.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 60c | 42.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 36.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…14b2backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -6.7wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked Under | 53c | 23.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5622…0111backed Under | 53c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…5673backed Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…2c66backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)Kashima Antlers won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.