WNBA · resolved market
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1fb4aeac7173b772020b120c2f278ed25f6e6bef8c68d75ee632e688556ba6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof New York Liberty, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed New York Liberty | 53c | 2,862$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.69 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 47c | 1,864$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.55 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…0c42backed PortlandFire | 46c | 853.7$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed PortlandFire | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed New York Liberty | 56c | 719.5$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked New York Liberty | 56c | 663.23$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.37 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed New York Liberty | 54c | 570$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.8 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PortlandFire | 44c | 455.3$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.69 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed PortlandFire | 47c | 368.62$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.64 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed New York Liberty | 67c | 333.62$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed New York Liberty | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed PortlandFire | 46c | 277.78$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 45c | 227.09$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked PortlandFire | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed New York Liberty | 55c | 178.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a6…b9debacked New York Liberty | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked PortlandFire | 64c | 87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed PortlandFire | 43c | 63.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed New York Liberty | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…cbfbbacked New York Liberty | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked New York Liberty | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…8eb3backed PortlandFire | 45c | 31.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2445…c932backed New York Liberty | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5)this page
- New York Liberty vs. Portland FirePortland Fire won
- New York Liberty vs. PortlandFire: O/U 173.5Over won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.