Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International, Qualification: Luca Nardi vs Aleksandar Vukic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb22a2d14f801c9f0881e763290f73cef303a8056fc1d145befaa93b4a7937428
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vukicof Nardi, Vukic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nardi | 50c | 4,507$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,254.67 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nardi | 14c | 3,145$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.71 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7318…cc3cbacked Vukic | 55c | 1,826$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nardi | 43c | 1,668$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.69 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed Vukic | 48c | 1,651$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.12 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Vukic | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.59 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Nardi | 61c | 1,368$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.62 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nardi | 15c | 1,052$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.88 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Nardi | 2c | 999.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Nardi | 38c | 707.11$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.8 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Nardi | 48c | 498.66$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.93 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Nardi | 37c | 452.51$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.16 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Vukic | 57c | 346.57$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.25 | 2,150 | 54.1%1,164 W · 986 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…01b2backed Vukic | 63c | 332.52$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Nardi | 43c | 299.77$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.9 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Vukic | 39c | 256.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.79 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Vukic | 27c | 248.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.15 | 161 | 33.5%54 W · 107 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Nardi | 45c | 211.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 991 | 39.9%395 W · 596 L | -9.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Nardi | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b69backed Vukic | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9501…a052backed Vukic | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Vukic | 66c | 151.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300e…dfb3backed Nardi | 43c | 141.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0747…7e58backed Vukic | 62c | 133.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a18…85b5backed Nardi | 65c | 112.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Nardi | 38c | 104.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Nardi | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Vukic | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Nardi | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 136 | 8.1%11 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Vukic | 60c | 95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nardi | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Vukic | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Vukic | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…196bbacked Vukic | 40c | 41.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Vukic | 47c | 36.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…cd27backed Vukic | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc297…b0d2backed Vukic | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb4…da3cbacked Vukic | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide International, Qualification: Luca Nardi vs Aleksandar Vukicthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Nardi vs VukicNardi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.