TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,513
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,480

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,513 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdfaf…d959backed Over40c1,212$485 inWon+$727.142123.8%5 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.25per pick49cpaid-50%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under60c1,207$724 inLost-$724.1410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under58c1,162$674 inLost-$673.751,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over42c918$386 inWon+$532.446,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under10c379.34$38 inLost-$37.818,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Under59c262.71$155 inLost-$15581257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Over43c232.56$100 inWon+$132.5622055.5%122 W · 98 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over41c196.06$80 inWon+$115.671,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5998…b5a8backed Under13c152.77$20 inLost-$19.866451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under57c143.76$82 inLost-$81.9475248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over40c120.8$48 inWon+$72.481,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over42c112$47 inWon+$64.961,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over40c75$30 inWon+$456,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e9c…5ea3backed Under59c67.8$40 inLost-$401643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over40c55.38$22 inWon+$33.131,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over70c53$37 inWon+$15.948,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under24c49$12 inLost-$11.655,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Over40c48.3$19 inWon+$28.9873949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d23…251cbacked Over40c48.3$19 inWon+$28.9811751.3%60 W · 57 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93e4…0a36backed Over43c46.51$20 inWon+$26.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-61.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over42c44.63$19 inWon+$25.892,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over74c36.5$27 inWon+$9.432,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under57c35.42$20 inLost-$20.1911852.5%62 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over42c32$13 inWon+$18.562,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Over42c30$13 inWon+$17.478854.6%430 W · 358 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.