NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Kings: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb27ffbb540c68a1dc710eefdc6a04f8ea224ac015317bb30e249e16e8049b999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Under | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 62c | 305.44$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.07 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 267$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 31c | 192.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Under | 34c | 151$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 61c | 149.84$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 33c | 137$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…f397backed Under | 36c | 127$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Under | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 59c | 100.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +16.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 69c | 89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed Over | 69c | 86.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Under | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 63c | 74.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 37c | 51.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 37c | 51.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 27c | 47.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 38c | 44.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Over | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +10.5wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Kings: O/U 4.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. KingsGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Kings: O/U 6.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Kings: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.