Fifa International · resolved market
Sweden to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2aa4048a314b5ae364b417639d30a6213292aa5fadd4d7b905c37f4d4e4232a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf021…e900backed No | 56c | 3,881$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.32 | 364 | 37.1%135 W · 229 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 2,898$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.31 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddaf…3de6backed Yes | 44c | 1,382$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.85 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 51c | 879.78$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.34 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 44c | 663.9$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.36 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked No | 52c | 399.97$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.99 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…32a0backed No | 30c | 361.67$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.38 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +152%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 58c | 304.28$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.13 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 56c | 222.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.87 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…0015backed Yes | 49c | 204.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.64 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 174.25$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.84 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 51c | 122.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 201 | 86.1%173 W · 28 L | +46.2wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 119.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 110.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4385…5560backed Yes | 46c | 104.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…18cdbacked Yes | 48c | 104.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 206 | 49.5%102 W · 104 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8883…2299backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x352c…940dbacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 90 | 64.4%58 W · 32 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…ac20backed No | 11c | 98.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 345 | 33.6%116 W · 229 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 54c | 94.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…cf06backed Yes | 49c | 82.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x055c…6a54backed Yes | 41c | 76.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb056…bc8dbacked Yes | 51c | 69.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9ebbacked No | 55c | 68.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 57c | 55.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…d3bfbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed No | 57c | 39.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1843…4d11backed Yes | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 34.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…432bbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked No | 56c | 26.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…1870backed Yes | 44c | 25.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -9.8wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sweden to win the second half?this page
- Sweden vs. Tunisia: Second half draw?No won
- Tunisia to win the second half?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.