World Politics · resolved market
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb30aea109e752d820bcca4d424f794084c58cbee78c748b9a4633e93f1f619b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc547…01babacked Yes | 1c | 2,119$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…42c0backed Yes | 2c | 1,456$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 20c | 1,100$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.8 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 806.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 79c | 564.67$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.45 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 6c | 432.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…576abacked Yes | 14c | 404.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7c…738dbacked Yes | 16c | 218.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 15c | 183.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…f543backed Yes | 24c | 147.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…eabcbacked Yes | 15c | 134.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 113.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…1b38backed Yes | 23c | 79.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…3351backed Yes | 25c | 46.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 75c | 38.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?this page
- Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?Yes won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?No won
- Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.