World Politics · resolved market
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3b9717de65fd77d699c5d2d27b2e32c30ebb4bd58421882c5dc487ab6957610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 0c | 6,274$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 73c | 3,292$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.43 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 74c | 1,087$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.84 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed No | 23c | 727.72$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…86b9backed No | 44c | 505$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…ed2bbacked Yes | 56c | 505$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 484.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…dfacbacked Yes | 71c | 435.76$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.36 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ea…3793backed Yes | 50c | 403.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 400$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 24c | 390$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…576abacked No | 24c | 385.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c4…b2adbacked Yes | 47c | 316.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…7934backed Yes | 20c | 300.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 64c | 295.26$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 60c | 276.65$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 25c | 248.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 34c | 203.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c6…e145backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 61c | 143.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 47c | 135.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…d993backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 34c | 127.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 37c | 119.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…21c7backed Yes | 49c | 108.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 67c | 101.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 41c | 97.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 92.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b40…57c4backed Yes | 62c | 81.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 26c | 55.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 28c | 51.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…009abacked Yes | 47c | 42.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 42.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…840dbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…88d1backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 78c | 38.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 70c | 35.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 34c | 35.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 38c | 31.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd00f…032abacked Yes | 58c | 30.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Yes | 69c | 26.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked Yes | 74c | 26.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…c218backed No | 38c | 26.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014e…3794backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd54f…de2dbacked Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…f16cbacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e78…d724backed Yes | 77c | 23.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…3487backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…b34ebacked Yes | 66c | 19.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936e…473fbacked Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?this page
- Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?No won
- Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.