World Politics · resolved market
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ac811433b985e39354d8bb00e575c1254035b0aeea2522c3bc9f41fd204b53a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 34c | 7,539$2,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,558.16 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 58c | 3,680$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.61 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 21c | 764.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 541.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed Yes | 18c | 392.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 18c | 357.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6004…d628backed Yes | 39c | 320.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…ce75backed No | 52c | 306.88$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26c6…e145backed Yes | 20c | 305.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 285.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…d5bbbacked Yes | 16c | 238.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 66c | 200.76$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…576abacked Yes | 27c | 175.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 6c | 169.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7679…0c96backed Yes | 45c | 151.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 151.71$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 26c | 121.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…4a47backed Yes | 44c | 113.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 103.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked No | 77c | 101.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…bc09backed Yes | 48c | 100.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 90.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 90.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1d…380cbacked Yes | 34c | 73.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 69.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 67.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 30c | 60.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 66c | 58.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b0…7795backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…892abacked Yes | 19c | 52.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 26c | 52.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…57f6backed No | 78c | 51.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Yes | 45c | 48.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 50c | 41.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 30c | 41.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0812…1ac0backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea1…372cbacked Yes | 45c | 34.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…550abacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 52c | 19.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 72c | 19.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…8760backed No | 63c | 17.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?this page
- Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?No won
- Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?Yes won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.