WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3478796313ba46fe60776e9635e51803dbd9d82c8f1d6b194dccd18d25e3360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x092c…5bb2backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 6,146$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,146.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Seattle Storm | 57c | 5,055$2,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,881.28 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Seattle Storm | 58c | 4,656$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 4,322$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,353.24 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Seattle Storm | 49c | 2,857$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 2,285$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.97 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 2,231$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.04 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 1,841$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.96 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Seattle Storm | 54c | 420$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 235.29$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.12 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 200.32$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Seattle Storm | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Seattle Storm | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Storm | 8c | 163.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 138$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 124.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 90.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Seattle Storm | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 63.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 51.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Seattle Storm | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 184 | 41.8%77 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…18cebacked Seattle Storm | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Seattle Storm | 55c | 33.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Seattle Storm | 55c | 28.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Seattle Storm | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Phoenix Mercury | 75c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5)this page
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 160.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 161.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 162.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5Over won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.