WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf677d692a8b1df03595aaa600614d9878df382578bcef09770eab929b4d75453
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Seattle Storm | 53c | 7,108$3,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,767.24 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 3,124$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.62 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Seattle Storm | 54c | 2,978$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.95 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 2,176$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.94 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 2,044$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.18 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 839.99$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.8 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Seattle Storm | 53c | 831.89$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.54 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Seattle Storm | 43c | 759.42$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 700$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 500.43$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.23 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Seattle Storm | 54c | 448.54$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.93 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 367$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.18 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 303.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.3 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 296.77$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.68 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 210.82$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 201.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Seattle Storm | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Seattle Storm | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Seattle Storm | 6c | 198.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…599abacked Seattle Storm | 54c | 184.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Seattle Storm | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…69f9backed Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 113.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Seattle Storm | 14c | 100.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…b98bbacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Phoenix Mercury | 60c | 82.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…f488backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 76.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Storm | 25c | 75.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Seattle Storm | 53c | 74.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 66.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73e…5fdfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Seattle Storm | 53c | 36.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 33.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 32.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 184 | 41.8%77 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 23.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Phoenix Mercury | 68c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5)this page
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 160.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 161.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 162.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5Over won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.