Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb361f90bba3856675aa64542ccaf60644763b8474aab2dc6e0a5ee413d9f8895
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 72c | 2,264$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.86 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 72c | 2,145$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.83 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 30c | 996$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.76 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 956.06$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.55 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 27c | 798.28$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.76 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 32c | 615.63$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 287 | 32.8%94 W · 193 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 27c | 503.7$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 29c | 392.42$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.96 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 338.12$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.79 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f47…ae5dbacked Yes | 23c | 212.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 210.04$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1995…9921backed Yes | 31c | 203.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes | 20c | 196.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca5…a155backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…56fdbacked No | 70c | 142.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 136.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 78c | 125.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 29c | 113.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 20c | 101.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 28c | 101.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 78c | 101.55$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 78c | 100.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 341 | 50.7%173 W · 168 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…2ba5backed Yes | 22c | 98.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 33c | 97.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 75c | 89.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Yes | 34c | 88.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 72c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 450 | 52.2%235 W · 215 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 70c | 54.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…76bfbacked No | 79c | 52.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…fe26backed Yes | 19c | 51.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 50.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 77c | 42.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 31c | 41.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 176 | 30.1%53 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 31c | 40.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Yes | 31c | 34.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked No | 74c | 22.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-06?No won
- Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-05-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.