South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Tigre end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb36e0365039620998b54a7a31c310a73ee0e464cb2f7aceba62ac475336c11fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 3,224$2,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.43 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 18c | 1,725$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.7 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…4aeebacked Yes | 27c | 1,311$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.16 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 20c | 293.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 163.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 153.22$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 26c | 128$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 20c | 109.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 20c | 108.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3207…3202backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…973cbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 20c | 65.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 42.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…f4d8backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 75c | 22.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…d166backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 75cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate vs. CA Tigre end in a draw?this page
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-02-07?No won
- Will CA Tigre win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.