South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-02-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x447e0e662fb5ce0d0305f2bad562907427b2dd408eefcfcbb3989b9950916ec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0457…4403backed Yes | 19c | 8,553$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 46c | 4,368$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,354.06 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…f6b7backed Yes | 1c | 2,154$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 4c | 1,465$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…4aeebacked No | 41c | 1,199$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.77 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1a…3589backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Yes | 59c | 977.97$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 59c | 707.12$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.27 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4e…6e96backed Yes | 11c | 509.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Yes | 59c | 270$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 14c | 248.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 103 | 26.2%27 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 77c | 225$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 224.72$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 12c | 202.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 61c | 190.34$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.49 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 24c | 166.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…9dacbacked Yes | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ac…5442backed Yes | 9c | 156.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75c…86d0backed Yes | 64c | 154.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes | 61c | 152.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Yes | 36c | 127.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Yes | 22c | 113.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa413…9242backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0119…fa8abacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…6b94backed Yes | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…68c3backed Yes | 61c | 82.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed No | 38c | 58.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 37c | 55.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed No | 38c | 50.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…857dbacked Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e45…402bbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…f4d8backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 38c | 33.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…8772backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d5…38ddbacked Yes | 64c | 30.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…d11ebacked Yes | 60c | 17.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6076…db0cbacked Yes | 61c | 16.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-02-07?this page
- Will CA River Plate vs. CA Tigre end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Tigre win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.