MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3ca5b5e10c10c3b13fbec73febde1793734ef1642e28df0b81833c0d93e5dac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics | 79c | 2,079$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.45 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Seattle Mariners | 11c | 1,092$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf30…8b95backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 1,011$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Seattle Mariners | 72c | 283.66$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.61 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff3…2eeebacked Athletics | 28c | 252.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.07 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Athletics | 53c | 110.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 86.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 35c | 32.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 27.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…fb2dbacked Seattle Mariners | 71c | 14.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Seattle MarinersAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.