MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8973b88bd89b4c0f568bba0a15b77f6529e36a288065528f3cbd83075b96fbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Seattle Mariners, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Seattle Mariners | 29c | 1,460$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.71 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 72c | 1,291$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 987.43$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.29 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Athletics | 60c | 870.27$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.11 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 39c | 719.03$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Athletics | 61c | 681.27$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.69 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 45c | 643.3$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.44 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 616.24$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.49 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 444$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.2 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 357.51$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 318.26$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.31 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf30…8b95backed Athletics | 71c | 304.19$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 294.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 45c | 209.14$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 189.79$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Athletics | 43c | 175.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 157.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 154.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Athletics | 47c | 151.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Athletics | 51c | 143.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…ae72backed Athletics | 55c | 136.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed Seattle Mariners | 21c | 113.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…c116backed Seattle Mariners | 75c | 105.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Athletics | 43c | 86.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Athletics | 61c | 76.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 69.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 65.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Athletics | 74c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Athletics | 62c | 57.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 53.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Athletics | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 71c | 37.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Athletics | 61c | 37.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Athletics | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Athletics | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 35.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Seattle Mariners | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 31.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Athletics | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Seattle Mariners | 59c | 26.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Athletics | 60c | 21.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Seattle MarinersAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.