TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Athleticsof Athletics, Seattle Mariners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$450,099
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$461,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $450,099 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x861a…1f15backed Seattle Mariners57c185,605$106,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106,398.14259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x99a7…fc82backed Athletics43c111,111$47,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,333.2714248.6%69 W · 73 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Athletics42c52,328$21,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,350.1221040%84 W · 126 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfa…27b2backed Seattle Mariners0c22,021$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Athletics42c13,282$5,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,724.951,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Seattle Mariners42c11,034$4,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,647.671,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Seattle Mariners60c9,434$5,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,658.291,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca4e…f97ebacked Athletics43c6,790$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,870.0611347.8%54 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Seattle Mariners57c5,262$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.5223351.1%119 W · 114 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Athletics74c5,206$3,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.5423036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Athletics74c4,961$3,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.2151756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Athletics42c4,869$2,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,840.651,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Athletics41c4,705$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,776.1737953.6%203 W · 176 L+18.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Athletics42c4,594$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.7865050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a0f1backed Athletics48c3,786$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.315050%25 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Seattle Mariners59c3,783$2,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,218.441,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Seattle Mariners10c3,590$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.61,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Seattle Mariners59c3,333$1,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.471136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Athletics43c3,256$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,855.878646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Athletics43c3,096$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.8986548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Seattle Mariners59c3,081$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,817.9613254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Seattle Mariners24c3,075$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.9848850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Athletics43c3,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7101,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9f…345cbacked Seattle Mariners57c2,889$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,646.455350.9%27 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f1…d867backed Athletics52c2,881$1,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.522860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed Athletics43c2,415$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.272365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+29.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletics66c2,260$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.41,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners22c2,243$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.246,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Seattle Mariners6c2,153$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.831,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Athletics44c2,098$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.8828049.6%139 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Athletics42c2,000$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17012640.5%51 W · 75 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e45…9e45backed Athletics42c2,000$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners57c1,995$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.486,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ff…9d91backed Seattle Mariners17c1,992$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.0920443.1%88 W · 116 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Athletics42c1,728$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.483,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623b…8facbacked Seattle Mariners58c1,702$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.691250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics77c1,668$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.44,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Seattle Mariners58c1,635$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.652,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Athletics72c1,423$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.691,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f7b…c1d5backed Seattle Mariners76c1,196$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87af…c990backed Athletics42c1,149$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.4532742.2%138 W · 189 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Athletics56c1,131$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.278,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Athletics40c1,028$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.0633852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Athletics80c1,006$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.2133864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners49c1,006$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.439,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Athletics43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+35.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Seattle Mariners38c976.27$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.8355464.1%355 W · 199 L+63.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1a67…00abbacked Seattle Mariners14c942.06$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.761838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Seattle Mariners58c931.01$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.571,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6076…f8fdbacked Seattle Mariners53c916.79$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.914243%61 W · 81 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Seattle Mariners57c881.5$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.4567444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Athletics35c853.31$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.436440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics40c796.97$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.3112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners57c774.74$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.65,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Seattle Mariners22c749.99$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16570735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b03…71babacked Seattle Mariners58c738.4$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.723342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners51c723.13$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.576,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec30…f1aabacked Seattle Mariners57c719.54$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.141442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-26.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics62c708.78$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b81…4679backed Seattle Mariners55c704.86$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.671947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f86…ef4ebacked Seattle Mariners23c704.46$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.025356.6%30 W · 23 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+41.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Seattle Mariners59c679.85$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.1146749.5%231 W · 236 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Athletics52c624.28$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.132,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57f3…4fcfbacked Seattle Mariners57c606.74$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.8417954.2%97 W · 82 L-0.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Athletics46c593.63$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.0218151.4%93 W · 88 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Seattle Mariners59c585$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.156662.1%41 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Athletics26c569.72$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.1555541.4%230 W · 325 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Athletics43c561.51$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.063855.3%21 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb8…902abacked Athletics47c558.26$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.881450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed Athletics44c549.09$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.493444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb5…b009backed Seattle Mariners16c536.63$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.856445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Athletics40c524.26$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.561,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd1…34efbacked Seattle Mariners12c523.25$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Athletics41c511.29$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.241,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Seattle Mariners57c505.17$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9428244.7%126 W · 156 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Athletics40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30010842.6%46 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Athletics42c492.65$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.871,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Seattle Mariners60c488$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.819143.5%83 W · 108 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Athletics44c483.2$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.5911041.8%46 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics65c481.33$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.611,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Seattle Mariners56c479.85$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.921,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Seattle Mariners9c472.7$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.549021.1%19 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Athletics24c463.6$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.413818.8%26 W · 112 L-17.2wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-46.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Seattle Mariners58c455.23$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.0318553%98 W · 87 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Seattle Mariners55c427.15$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9328347.3%134 W · 149 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Seattle Mariners61c400.41$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.2522548.4%109 W · 116 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Athletics44c386.56$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.4719248.4%93 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9cd…39abbacked Seattle Mariners31c380.69$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.781926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Seattle Mariners23c372.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.991936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+41.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Athletics41c355.94$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21040645.1%183 W · 223 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Seattle Mariners7c354.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.694034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked Athletics43c350$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.539850.3%200 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda74…2dd7backed Athletics42c349.99$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.41,27743.1%550 W · 727 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32de…ce27backed Athletics42c329.98$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.9963644.7%284 W · 352 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Athletics43c326.31$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.885235.8%305 W · 547 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Mariners69c324.19$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.355,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Athletics22c303.29$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.5716138.5%62 W · 99 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Athletics42c299.99$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.61,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Athletics38c288.9$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.0422848.2%110 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Seattle Mariners11c285$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.312,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.