TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc9cd…39ab

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$138
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.5
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$83
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)backed Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.3
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.8
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.99
Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$202.28
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.22
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)backed Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+154.1%+$177.46
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+98%+$97.5
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+48%+$95.35
Athletics vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.78
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.97
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.57
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+689.3%+$378.24
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.53
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+364.9%+$224.38
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.4
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,889Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+82.7%+$2,388.56
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+212.4%+$212.42
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+101.1%+$202.2
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,005Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,004.66
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,141.5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,250
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,735Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,735
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$529.84
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.69
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$4,556Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+90.9%+$4,143.81
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.3
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-79.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.61
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.