MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab6edbbca8f74838e3e01a20445517024fd556024150f2f591e20d3b245f3037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 395.24$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.1 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 351.18$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.86 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 300.26$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.16 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…39abbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 292.62$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 199.32$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.55 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 187.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 177.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 167.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 131.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 124.17$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 101.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 98.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 96.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 63.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 59.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 57.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 42.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 42.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 37.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 36.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 35.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 70c | 34.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 29.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 27.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 21.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles AngelsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.