MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fbd0be08de64186d9ca75d0b80f003fae4480b1e0cf4b06d6caa5c4b736b2e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 20c | 1,037$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.25 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 55c | 891.11$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.37 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 46c | 748.5$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.19 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 421.85$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 45c | 415.15$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.69 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 54c | 243.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.27 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Over | 55c | 231.93$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.56 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 47c | 206.23$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.3 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…d613backed Under | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…e8edbacked Under | 46c | 183.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 10c | 148.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 59c | 108.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 11c | 108$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…d375backed Over | 55c | 97.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 96.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 55c | 93.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 59c | 90.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 59c | 74.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 54c | 67.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 59c | 57.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 57c | 41.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 38.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Over | 52c | 36.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Over | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 53c | 29.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 55c | 28.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles AngelsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.