MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d8a422e5f9dd21030d5282875d57fef319b4e352cdf50f292ec8925c70a073d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 51c | 13,203$6,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,457.96 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…b23ebacked Over | 49c | 13,134$6,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,431.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 46c | 4,456$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061.32 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 61c | 2,946$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.61 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Over | 44c | 904.06$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.17 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 55c | 764$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.8 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Under | 55c | 704.87$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 10c | 612.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 48c | 605.5$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.64 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 56c | 530.5$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 56c | 386.03$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.19 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 43c | 256.51$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 54c | 253.17$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked Under | 56c | 191.24$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 57c | 170.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 55c | 158$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…fb2dbacked Under | 53c | 120$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4479…c84abacked Under | 53c | 109.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 14c | 96.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 44c | 87.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 85.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Under | 54c | 85.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 76c | 79.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…76ccbacked Under | 58c | 75.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 56c | 75.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 57c | 71.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…a1ecbacked Over | 43c | 69.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…c6e4backed Over | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 48c | 57.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 55c | 54.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959b…64edbacked Under | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Under | 58c | 36.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…c01dbacked Over | 44c | 32.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 56c | 26.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Under | 61c | 23.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…92cfbacked Under | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles AngelsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.