MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5eb7402498c07e888c6b89f0413a41b950f62974b4745ad211d6423e377345dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 54c | 1,804$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.76 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 46c | 1,620$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.23 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 1,358$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.68 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 47c | 1,324$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.52 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 45c | 1,112$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.4 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 482.78$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.27 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 389.55$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.09 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…5dbdbacked Over | 65c | 303.27$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 35c | 296.86$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 55c | 291.9$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 18c | 277.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 56c | 228.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 56c | 217.21$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 55c | 170.28$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…650bbacked Over | 57c | 170.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 145$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 43c | 140.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 74.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 65.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 73c | 63.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 19c | 57.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…9a96backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Over | 56c | 40.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Over | 57c | 37.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 55c | 36.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 71c | 24.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 56c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Over | 56c | 22.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. Seattle MarinersAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.