Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-07-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3ce7657ee284fd25d054a5e774fde2e9ddd23816796823f7a805c2735c23d1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 28c | 10,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.89 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…fc21backed No | 72c | 8,407$6,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,353.93 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 6,414$4,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780.52 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 11c | 3,171$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.84 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed Yes | 6c | 1,583$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 28c | 1,032$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.92 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 6c | 854.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…16b9backed No | 72c | 833.33$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 7c | 674.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yes | 5c | 605$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 6c | 562$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Yes | 9c | 386.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 289.31$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Yes | 27c | 269.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked No | 72c | 252.07$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed No | 73c | 240$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 28c | 213.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 72c | 207$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…45f6backed No | 72c | 192.67$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 15c | 165$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 19c | 159.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b8…8921backed Yes | 28c | 145.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -57%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 21c | 139.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 74c | 107.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed No | 72c | 101.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed No | 72c | 100.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…da98backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…ab12backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Yes | 16c | 97.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 27c | 88.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed No | 73c | 78.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 73c | 69.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…ba39backed Yes | 29c | 64.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 29c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 27c | 57.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 48.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…739fbacked Yes | 28c | 44.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…4a76backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…0123backed No | 73c | 36.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked No | 73c | 35.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed No | 73c | 31.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 72c | 26.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 25.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 72c | 24.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 73c | 21.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5437…6e45backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-07-25?this page
- Will D.C. United SC vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?No won
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.