Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bb4c5f438e4955fb6a087eab5166cf82815dd93dcda708e6586e71629772c94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 58c | 3,163$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.1 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 33c | 2,332$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.77 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 2,218$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.89 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 75c | 2,134$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.2 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 23c | 1,918$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.15 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 46c | 1,813$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.3 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked No | 71c | 1,320$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.8 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…fa68backed No | 15c | 973.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 44c | 968.52$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.08 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 41c | 886$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.66 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 73c | 657$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.64 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 29c | 650$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.5 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 78c | 628.54$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.63 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 39c | 604.13$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.43 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 49c | 422.66$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.95 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 20c | 401$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.99 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 39c | 400$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 53c | 387.84$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.3 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 26c | 370.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.94 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 19c | 256.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Yes | 49c | 235$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 37c | 206.76$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…e542backed No | 22c | 199.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 26c | 198.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…45f6backed No | 74c | 190.04$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 50c | 129$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 68c | 125.74$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 42c | 119.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 54c | 98.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 34c | 88.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Yes | 49c | 86.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Yes | 57c | 83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1372…4ce0backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.30per pick | 69cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 73c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 73c | 62.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…fc6cbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 45.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 34c | 38.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 79c | 36.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 59c | 21.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 16.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed No | 74c | 16.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?this page
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-07-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.