Tennis · resolved market
Hangzhou Open: Valentin Royer vs Alexander Bublik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3dfabfa9ec36091e0a1dec93e6950d26995dd48dd75ec1b64da548863f4eb11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bublikof Royer, Bublik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f1c…335abacked Royer | 24c | 4,179$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.3 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Bublik | 77c | 3,308$2,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.64 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Royer | 23c | 2,653$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.14 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Bublik | 75c | 2,147$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.79 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bublik | 73c | 1,606$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.67 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Bublik | 76c | 973$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.52 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Royer | 23c | 800.23$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.25 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Royer | 42c | 742.32$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.85 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Bublik | 77c | 675.77$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.43 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Royer | 23c | 599.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Royer | 22c | 599.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Royer | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Bublik | 68c | 499$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.28 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Royer | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Bublik | 74c | 336.27$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Bublik | 77c | 297.44$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Bublik | 72c | 275.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Royer | 19c | 267.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royer | 22c | 232.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Royer | 11c | 221.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed Royer | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Royer | 37c | 196.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…35dcbacked Bublik | 77c | 184.25$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Bublik | 77c | 141.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Bublik | 47c | 133.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Bublik | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Royer | 26c | 116.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 252 | 52.4%132 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royer | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Bublik | 77c | 103.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 308 | 55.8%172 W · 136 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bublik | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Royer | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Royer | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Bublik | 78c | 88.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Royer | 20c | 87.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Royer | 24c | 85.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,332 | 46.6%1,087 W · 1,245 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Royer | 24c | 82.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…9213backed Royer | 22c | 54.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Bublik | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Royer | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Bublik | 78c | 29.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Royer | 53c | 23.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Bublik | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.