Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Harvard Crimson (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3e83ce56e4d8da8230d4e3e5ae9c0cf40d8ac89aa6cf7ed9b44cef362fade32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brown Bearsof Harvard Crimson, Brown Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Harvard Crimson | 47c | 5,713$2,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,676.94 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8758…01e0backed Harvard Crimson | 50c | 4,150$2,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Brown Bears | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Brown Bears | 52c | 3,222$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.88 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Brown Bears | 53c | 2,122$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.41 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Brown Bears | 53c | 1,032$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.98 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Brown Bears | 51c | 330.04$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.72 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Harvard Crimson | 47c | 305.83$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.19 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Harvard Crimson | 48c | 296.72$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.09 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Harvard Crimson | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Brown Bears | 54c | 208$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Harvard Crimson | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Harvard Crimson | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8218…b5a9backed Harvard Crimson | 56c | 57.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Brown Bears | 52c | 56.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Harvard Crimson | 47c | 52.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Brown Bears | 52c | 24.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Brown Bears | 50c | 21.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Harvard Crimson | 53c | 20.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Brown Bears | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed Harvard Crimson | 60c | 17.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Harvard Crimson (-8.5)this page
- Brown Bears vs. Harvard CrimsonHarvard Crimson won
- Brown Bears vs. Harvard Crimson: O/U 132.5Under won
- Spread: Harvard Crimson (-7.5)Brown Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.