Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brisbane: Chia Yi Tsao vs Belle Thompson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb401b3e063c52754e8c9d6ad0925d9d8e7c88cce552a5af8ccf1d6e0f0dd1147
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chia Yi Tsaoof Chia Yi Tsao, Belle Thompson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Chia Yi Tsao | 71c | 4,879$3,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.31 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…4b0dbacked Belle Thompson | 27c | 781.96$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.4 | 142 | 26.8%38 W · 104 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Belle Thompson | 33c | 560.72$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.54 | 8,834 | 42.5%3,758 W · 5,076 L | -169.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…e738backed Belle Thompson | 36c | 526.48$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.7 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…db95backed Belle Thompson | 36c | 493$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.48 | 345 | 52.5%181 W · 164 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chia Yi Tsao | 67c | 382.89$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.66 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Belle Thompson | 21c | 133.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1,991 | 52.9%1,053 W · 938 L | +31.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Belle Thompson | 19c | 129$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1,772 | 52.1%923 W · 849 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Belle Thompson | 20c | 112.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2,090 | 52.2%1,091 W · 999 L | +17.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b45…ba8bbacked Belle Thompson | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Chia Yi Tsao | 78c | 98.08$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 173 | 71.7%124 W · 49 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Chia Yi Tsao | 77c | 97.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 526 | 46.8%246 W · 280 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Belle Thompson | 20c | 93.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1,730 | 52.2%903 W · 827 L | -8.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Belle Thompson | 20c | 83.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,179 | 52.8%623 W · 556 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Belle Thompson | 27c | 44.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,899 | 39.6%1,147 W · 1,752 L | -84.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Chia Yi Tsao | 78c | 43.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Belle Thompson | 30c | 39.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,789 | 46.3%828 W · 961 L | -6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Chia Yi Tsao | 71c | 39.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed Chia Yi Tsao | 71c | 35.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…7bc2backed Belle Thompson | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 215 | 36.7%79 W · 136 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…cbfbbacked Belle Thompson | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 152 | 49.3%75 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…3afdbacked Chia Yi Tsao | 77c | 23.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Chia Yi Tsao | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 219 | 49.3%108 W · 111 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Chia Yi Tsao | 75c | 20.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 434 | 59.7%259 W · 175 L | +27.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Chia Yi Tsao | 69c | 14.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,832 | 53%971 W · 861 L | -45.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Chia Yi Tsao | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 427 | 59%252 W · 175 L | +26.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.