NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb414de44dbe978b49f59250acddcca938f26acf1642e55cb4c85e3ca21959f9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,096 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 545.99$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.94 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 18c | 360.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 40c | 250.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 60c | 223.93$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 41c | 174$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 40c | 141.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 75.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 40c | 63.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 50c | 35.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 61c | 34.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…f64abacked Under | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…d865backed Over | 41c | 26.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 75c | 24.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5this page
- Kings vs. FlamesFlames won
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.