NHL · resolved market
Spread: Kings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca41759e7297e337f878c730e5f6bf6ddfab1c37d422654e9ead513d4011e457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Kings, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,875 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Kings | 35c | 2,368$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.26 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Flames | 65c | 2,222$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.7 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Kings | 37c | 1,192$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.25 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Flames | 64c | 1,054$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.59 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Kings | 36c | 321.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Kings | 12c | 269$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed Flames | 66c | 266.67$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Flames | 64c | 260.39$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Flames | 66c | 257.26$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flames | 63c | 245.31$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flames | 69c | 187.17$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Flames | 57c | 170$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Flames | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Flames | 64c | 135.24$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Kings | 36c | 122.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flames | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Flames | 66c | 103.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…3520backed Flames | 53c | 102.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…29ebbacked Flames | 54c | 86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Kings | 31c | 82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Flames | 64c | 80.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flames | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Kings | 20c | 57.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Flames | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Kings | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Kings | 31c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8d…16cbbacked Kings | 36c | 43.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kings | 47c | 42.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Kings | 36c | 40.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kings | 46c | 36.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd72…cc45backed Kings | 48c | 35.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Flames | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flames | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Flames | 66c | 31.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Flames | 66c | 30.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flames | 63c | 25.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Flames | 65c | 25.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…23a9backed Flames | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe565…6a38backed Flames | 53c | 24.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kings | 47c | 24.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…db7ebacked Flames | 53c | 24.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Flames | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…db46backed Flames | 73c | 21.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…47afbacked Flames | 53c | 21.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Flames | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Flames | 64c | 20.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…069bbacked Flames | 65c | 18.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Flames | 66c | 17.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)this page
- Kings vs. FlamesFlames won
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.