NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Flames: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ccef6c793075d0da8f6f7c83d859389bd6872b3edca4e4315d4b0b1cf9e5786
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,238 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Under | 1c | 19,401$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +5.5wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…9801backed Under | 27c | 925.93$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 47c | 574.04$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.53 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 73c | 539.14$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.57 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 53c | 523$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.78 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 73c | 380.93$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 74c | 365$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…280cbacked Under | 36c | 248.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 57c | 239.35$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.47 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 59c | 213.95$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 38c | 184.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 25c | 123.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 61c | 99.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…635bbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e58…bd66backed Under | 26c | 79.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Over | 75c | 67.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…db46backed Over | 59c | 66.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed Over | 57c | 64.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…3520backed Under | 51c | 41.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…3ed7backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 75c | 27.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 58c | 25.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Under | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 58c | 22.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…f319backed Over | 67c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed Over | 77c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1758…af06backed Over | 74c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc141…2c71backed Over | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 4.5this page
- Kings vs. FlamesFlames won
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.