Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4218aad252ed4fb16c82a482445f009c76e21ac37bb08280e78143f656b6afe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Aurora, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Aurora | 46c | 19,694$9,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,079.49 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed MOUZ | 51c | 19,664$10,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,546.72 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked MOUZ | 49c | 5,464$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,803.91 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Aurora | 53c | 2,636$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.3 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ | 48c | 2,496$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.59 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…2280backed MOUZ | 73c | 2,372$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Aurora | 55c | 2,188$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.02 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Aurora | 52c | 2,086$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.86 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…3d8abacked Aurora | 53c | 1,230$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…9026backed MOUZ | 67c | 1,194$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora | 51c | 1,013$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.05 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c5…90dfbacked MOUZ | 56c | 951.01$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked MOUZ | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…494dbacked MOUZ | 60c | 502.69$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ | 45c | 469.14$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.37 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked MOUZ | 47c | 426.12$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.61 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora | 54c | 269$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.26 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora | 35c | 235.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed MOUZ | 55c | 224.6$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…2f03backed Aurora | 51c | 215.36$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.46 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…9774backed Aurora | 56c | 200.11$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed MOUZ | 67c | 193.28$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6a…56d6backed Aurora | 51c | 186.45$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed MOUZ | 47c | 181.83$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked MOUZ | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Aurora | 45c | 180$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c7…d64fbacked Aurora | 49c | 154.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…405fbacked MOUZ | 45c | 149.84$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89cb…574cbacked MOUZ | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MOUZ | 30c | 140$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed MOUZ | 64c | 104.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Aurora | 56c | 92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Aurora | 58c | 73.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…8700backed MOUZ | 69c | 61.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed MOUZ | 65c | 58.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked MOUZ | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Aurora | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac00…99d6backed Aurora | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed MOUZ | 56c | 42.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7659…158abacked Aurora | 42c | 37.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…4dacbacked MOUZ | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa088…9972backed MOUZ | 59c | 29.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…c90dbacked Aurora | 56c | 25.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Aurora | 50c | 24.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.