Tennis · resolved market
ITF Fukui: Hiromi Abe vs Rinko Matsuda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb42ff51646f3f9416c1aa679cba24e88506379c67a4c15c992b587aae9e6b25b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hiromi Abeof Hiromi Abe, Rinko Matsuda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbfb…84a6backed Rinko Matsuda | 25c | 3,986$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.52 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Rinko Matsuda | 21c | 800$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 464 | 53%246 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…e759backed Hiromi Abe | 79c | 758.88$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.19 | 608 | 56.6%344 W · 264 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Rinko Matsuda | 17c | 576.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 8,834 | 42.5%3,758 W · 5,076 L | -169.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Hiromi Abe | 76c | 541.08$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.55 | 383 | 46.2%177 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Rinko Matsuda | 21c | 346.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 7,129 | 39.7%2,832 W · 4,297 L | -14.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hiromi Abe | 77c | 312.41$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 6,550 | 54.4%3,565 W · 2,985 L | +287.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Rinko Matsuda | 21c | 301.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 5,352 | 28.8%1,543 W · 3,809 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hiromi Abe | 78c | 286.5$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 8,057 | 50.8%4,089 W · 3,968 L | +90.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…b4f2backed Rinko Matsuda | 23c | 222.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 457 | 44.2%202 W · 255 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Hiromi Abe | 79c | 216.57$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 1,772 | 52.1%923 W · 849 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Hiromi Abe | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Hiromi Abe | 76c | 160.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 4,992 | 38.6%1,927 W · 3,065 L | -19.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1aa…9359backed Rinko Matsuda | 19c | 158.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1435backed Hiromi Abe | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 390 | 35.9%140 W · 250 L | -61.1wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Hiromi Abe | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Hiromi Abe | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Rinko Matsuda | 36c | 123$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Rinko Matsuda | 21c | 112.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 232 | 47%109 W · 123 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Rinko Matsuda | 15c | 110.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 6,649 | 46.3%3,079 W · 3,570 L | -38.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Hiromi Abe | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 901 | 64.4%580 W · 321 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…b1ccbacked Hiromi Abe | 77c | 101.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 404 | 54.7%221 W · 183 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Rinko Matsuda | 17c | 94.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,459 | 50.1%731 W · 728 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Rinko Matsuda | 21c | 93.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Rinko Matsuda | 17c | 91.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…206cbacked Rinko Matsuda | 22c | 69.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 856 | 37.7%323 W · 533 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Rinko Matsuda | 20c | 68.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 152 | 25%38 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…41e1backed Hiromi Abe | 79c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 371 | 58.8%218 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Rinko Matsuda | 21c | 50.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,857 | 41%762 W · 1,095 L | -32.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Hiromi Abe | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,144 | 47.2%540 W · 604 L | +64.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Hiromi Abe | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…1dcebacked Hiromi Abe | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed Hiromi Abe | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Hiromi Abe | 76c | 22.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 5,553 | 48.6%2,700 W · 2,853 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Hiromi Abe | 61c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.