Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb439016d14d6966d0c89e6cffce2b6ea32cc746b305379113a240020a0919b79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc732…45b3backed No | 3c | 757.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 44c | 566.01$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.37 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 357.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 74c | 347$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 344.24$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 311.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.67 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 305.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 9c | 214.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.55 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 12c | 213.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.21 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 73c | 196.42$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 11c | 177.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.53 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…7a04backed Yes | 13c | 175.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.48 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 171.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…b011backed Yes | 10c | 170.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.06 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 36c | 150.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 34c | 143.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 11c | 133.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.73 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x312f…913cbacked Yes | 31c | 130.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 126.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 57c | 114.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 106.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 103.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked Yes | 40c | 83.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 76.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 19c | 71.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 77c | 64.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 31c | 58.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 38c | 57.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 49c | 55.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 48c | 50.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 43c | 47.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 35c | 46.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…8000backed No | 65c | 45.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…5401backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked No | 49c | 33.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 44c | 26.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…d0a6backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 24.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 23.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 72c | 20.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 65c | 19.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 67c | 18.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 79c | 18.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.