TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on April 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,010
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,655

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,010 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes78c1,098$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.534,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes5c901.45$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.422040%8 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes12c493.33$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.593,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30bd…cecabacked Yes53c382.75$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.663836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c366.53$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.882,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes39c365.66$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.775,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed No14c342.32$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.6766144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No18c337.05$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.1263323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No57c306.31$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.9781165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes30c305.41$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0510141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes43c291.18$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes10c281.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2718327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c263.66$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad8a…9d7bbacked No47c209.23$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.17558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No13c186.06$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.619059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x744b…1fe9backed Yes6c170$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f16…063dbacked Yes36c169.18$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.153348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ef…e590backed Yes8c164.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4355.7%2 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid+6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No46c157.97$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3931170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes63c149.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8937942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No33c146.15$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.488,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c144.94$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No51c143.84$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.972952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked No61c140.84$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4725449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x322a…096fbacked No18c124.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.636622.7%15 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f26…abbabacked Yes47c119.48$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2711331.9%36 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes17c118.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.03429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1c…e255backed No72c113.37$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.341788.2%15 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick74cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5fc…c493backed No34c110.68$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.335451.9%28 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed Yes71c107.57$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8716157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked No68c103.79$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.416144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No16c95.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.349361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes42c94.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No23c89.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2466944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes46c85.69$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.251,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed Yes60c84.2$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.65356.6%30 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x312f…913cbacked No39c74.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.29450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+43.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes74c70.51$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4917355.5%96 W · 77 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No30c67.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.183,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…9c69backed No19c65.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.371414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No46c65.44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1543663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes24c63.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1531062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed No17c62.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0722550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9010…df3ebacked Yes40c58.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5414144%62 W · 79 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3eb…4af7backed No21c55.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.521540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes68c54.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3834067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes72c54.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.389270.7%65 W · 27 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee7a…b68dbacked No44c53.63$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.033831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes49c50.18$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7752533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.527732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes80c49.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8672837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No62c49.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.962,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed Yes69c49.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.614659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes65c47.42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8540739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes47c46.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8920835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed No45c41.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0744757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes36c41.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7935133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…4d70backed Yes79c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.58466.7%56 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No49c39.14$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8157038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes54c39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0199961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…652abacked No46c37.83$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.543551.4%18 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes69c36.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.596137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes56c36.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5516030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed Yes56c36.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5511129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed Yes56c36.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5522265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No52c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.966141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe88…e756backed Yes48c34.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.742157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c71…431fbacked No50c34.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.872969%20 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No47c33.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7499949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc82…87a1backed No45c31.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes66c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.321,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed Yes80c30.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6123547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.31,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc118…18e2backed No50c29.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9915346.4%71 W · 82 L+26.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+112.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No38c29.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.024,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c1c…43cabacked Yes46c26.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.15714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-75.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes69c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe45…fd22backed No74c19.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.244955.1%27 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa456…6d13backed Yes55c19.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.771428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed Yes78c19.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0371159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes59c18.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6425344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes68c17.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.128229.3%24 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.