MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4428b919379f460bd7b3255f13ef8986ce054e5b31dbabd2ff99feabe8992db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $404,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $404,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 41c | 400,000$163,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163,917.63 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Over | 59c | 391,763$231,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160,622.97 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 60c | 6,778$4,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,711.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Over | 64c | 1,076$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.29 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 38c | 550$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 62c | 550$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 311.12$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 68c | 214$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…2d82backed Over | 61c | 195.84$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 163.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…accbbacked Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 36c | 122$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…6801backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 61c | 99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd4…50bcbacked Over | 61c | 61.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 24c | 59.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 57.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 22c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Over | 58c | 50.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…67fabacked Over | 61c | 34.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…4582backed Over | 61c | 27.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…9384backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 60c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…99febacked Over | 63c | 19.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 66c | 19.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 14.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.