MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd052d5ea5bee63ce9267fad6b7ba6c9805ae916c697509966e46a7b19938cfea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 52c | 23,274$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 11,601$5,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,976.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Under | 52c | 7,680$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Over | 48c | 2,256$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.24 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 1,997$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.25 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 907.03$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.77 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 49c | 820$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 700$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 490.19$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 411.87$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 49c | 400$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 13c | 283$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 261$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.14 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Over | 48c | 251.19$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.62 | 119 | 61.3%73 W · 46 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 236$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 183.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.34 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 50c | 168$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Over | 50c | 157.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 125.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 91.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…bf35backed Over | 50c | 86.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 49c | 82.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Over | 50c | 79.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 48c | 73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 30c | 54.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 50c | 44.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 48c | 44.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 36.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…d5fdbacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…5607backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 50c | 21.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f22…468bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 64c | 16.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 14.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.