MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14d420541e7b768e9e19fe19de54c8d5123984673b897218b96f8873e1fb5f37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f0c…7ca5backed Under | 49c | 26,345$12,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,961.19 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -7.9wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 13,055$6,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,453.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 51c | 6,398$3,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,115.57 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 2,299$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 1,676$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 24c | 1,183$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 51c | 975.12$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.81 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 76c | 957.24$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.5 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 61c | 538.23$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.06 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 74c | 405.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 33c | 373.7$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.39 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 63c | 189.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 52c | 184.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 80c | 179$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.01 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e80…416dbacked Over | 77c | 99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 76c | 85.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 66c | 83.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 23c | 74.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…9528backed Over | 64c | 70.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 76c | 57.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 43c | 54.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 68c | 53.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 39c | 52.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 51c | 49.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed Over | 54c | 25.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Over | 59c | 23.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…829abacked Over | 61c | 20.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 76c | 17.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 73c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 14.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.