MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f3e4ce83c12886ddc398bc5fe89115863eb1c36359cace840e0f784ab83b296
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 72c | 5,930$4,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,262.38 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Houston Astros | 28c | 4,609$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,320.76 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Athletics | 21c | 2,591$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.53 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Houston Astros | 28c | 1,986$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.25 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 79c | 1,594$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.76 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 50c | 1,265$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.44 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Houston Astros | 55c | 999$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.58 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Houston Astros | 28c | 722.96$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.53 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 74c | 348.37$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Houston Astros | 26c | 347.31$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.01 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 72c | 299.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.99 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics | 72c | 252.5$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Athletics | 72c | 208.34$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 58c | 162.67$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Houston Astros | 28c | 161.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.39 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Athletics | 74c | 130$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Houston Astros | 69c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Athletics | 49c | 69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…5382backed Houston Astros | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Houston Astros | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2592backed Houston Astros | 28c | 54.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros | 42c | 52.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Athletics | 63c | 50.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Houston Astros | 56c | 49.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics | 44c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Houston Astros | 25c | 46.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Houston Astros | 27c | 40.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Houston Astros | 28c | 38.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Athletics | 65c | 20.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 76c | 16.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 14.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.