Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb446b74964abff417e0edbcd5451aa2abecc8bc3a74f6638abd248c5166dc17d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 7c | 3,760$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.86 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,573$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.6 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 1c | 1,579$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 47c | 1,185$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.56 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,105$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…0bbabacked Yes | 13c | 934.93$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad7…d2fdbacked Yes | 6c | 787.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…f7d2backed Yes | 3c | 749.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 22c | 723.46$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.13 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 673.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 6c | 422.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 28c | 388.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.81 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cf…15b4backed Yes | 70c | 298.79$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 26c | 291.37$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 58c | 285.96$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Yes | 35c | 226.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…432fbacked Yes | 79c | 226$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.01 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 5c | 225.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…de27backed Yes | 71c | 154.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 65c | 153.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…d6e6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaba…23f5backed No | 76c | 129$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 107.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63fa…6a1abacked Yes | 70c | 105$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…83aabacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…4732backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf717…6d1dbacked No | 78c | 89.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 75c | 88.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6e…2960backed Yes | 77c | 84.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 73c | 83.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…4f5abacked Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…169fbacked Yes | 80c | 74.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 33c | 72.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadad…58bdbacked Yes | 25c | 69.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 53c | 62.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 61.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1961…c204backed Yes | 76c | 61.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed No | 21c | 60.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 60.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23a9…64f3backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 21c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 21c | 58.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…759ebacked Yes | 79c | 50.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a39…2d3cbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…4e6abacked No | 73c | 44.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…6bf3backed Yes | 51c | 42.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 33c | 42.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 57c | 41.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc6…e824backed Yes | 40c | 41.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…f46fbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x975a…a66abacked No | 72c | 39.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d47…ae69backed Yes | 32c | 37.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 36.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…c7b0backed Yes | 40c | 35.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 55c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 55c | 34.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4d…06b3backed Yes | 34c | 34.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…a169backed Yes | 35c | 33.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569a…c742backed No | 76c | 31.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253c…aa0bbacked Yes | 78c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f09…0bcabacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474f…3f25backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed No | 79c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C or below on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or higher on January 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.