NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb446eb037bb907bd60c42892434d2cdb733c1ee70c342ed12e7319dfcfb50b8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 1,136$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.11 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 48c | 1,083$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.17 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 39c | 353$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.89 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…9b2bbacked Under | 62c | 210.96$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 60c | 199$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 44c | 63.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…cc01backed Over | 38c | 55.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…73ecbacked Over | 38c | 54.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dec…058cbacked Over | 38c | 50.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed Over | 38c | 50.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 59c | 45.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e40…34a4backed Under | 45c | 41.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4a50backed Under | 45c | 39.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 64c | 35.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d8…e461backed Under | 45c | 33.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 53c | 31.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…1d07backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…a173backed Over | 55c | 29.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113a…5696backed Over | 55c | 29.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…1ac2backed Over | 55c | 28.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb92…a880backed Over | 55c | 27.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 26.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Over | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd058…0613backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Over | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 61c | 17.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5this page
- Oilers vs. DucksDucks won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.