NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc824fe5c1052d394c2f082caebf9588162d5d635131b285daa16d2162aa9e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $211,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 60c | 179,817$107,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,171.38 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 40c | 143,758$57,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,503.2 | 390 | 47.9%187 W · 203 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 41c | 20,000$8,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,199.99 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 45c | 10,278$4,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,641.63 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 41c | 10,020$4,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,088.81 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,299.99 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 57c | 4,998$2,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,148.95 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 4,802$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.21 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 41c | 3,171$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 58c | 2,419$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.03 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 59c | 2,150$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.8 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Under | 44c | 1,942$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.76 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Under | 44c | 1,339$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 59c | 1,182$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.62 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 41c | 1,160$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.6 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 59c | 1,012$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.05 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 57c | 890.02$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.3 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 64c | 701.06$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.82 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 41c | 517.17$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.83 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 55c | 381.82$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.82 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 42c | 329.18$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.26 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Under | 42c | 309.52$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 58c | 299.41$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 55c | 289$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…97b6backed Under | 48c | 197.92$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 57c | 179.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…922bbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 56c | 159.16$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 43c | 128.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 44c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 41c | 115.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 59c | 79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 41c | 70.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Over | 58c | 63.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 61c | 59.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…89a4backed Under | 52c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…68c1backed Over | 48c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 41c | 51.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 41c | 51.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Under | 43c | 42.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…a6ebbacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…c888backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…0e5bbacked Over | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120a…ed97backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 43c | 31.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc46a…baf8backed Under | 42c | 25.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…b2f5backed Under | 41c | 25.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…5babbacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…5d05backed Under | 42c | 24.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…dac7backed Under | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4123backed Over | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5this page
- Oilers vs. DucksDucks won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.