TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x502b…1ac2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
32
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2025, EST1361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kings vs. Mavericksbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+96.1%+$50.5
Hornets vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+64.2%+$20.89
Hawks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST-100%-$69.92
Heat vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+194.1%+$24.87
Bucks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+185.7%+$47.93
Warriors vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+203%+$129.53
Wizards vs. Netsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+122.9%+$142.88
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$35.17
Suns vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+177.8%+$40.64
Magic vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+66.7%+$21.79
Kings vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$56.24
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$35.51
Bucks vs. Spursbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$65.03
All 13 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Capitalsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$17.27
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+81.8%+$12.71
Avalanche vs. Oilersbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+156.4%+$56.98
Predators vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+170.3%+$59.29
Penguins vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$22.86
Senators vs. Predatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+108.3%+$46.28
Flames vs. Krakenbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+143.9%+$75.12
Blues vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$54.57
Golden Knights vs. Rangersbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$27.25
Blues vs. Avalanchebacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$59.85
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-02-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST+104.1%+$36.51
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST-100%-$109.72
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: GIANTX vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winnerbacked GIANTX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$23.39
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+40.8%+$10.66
All 2 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Houston Dynamo vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+78.6%+$69.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+35.1%+$9.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$15.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)backed Real Madrid CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$19.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
AJ Auxerre vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$57.62
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.