Mls · resolved market
Houston Dynamo vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x222eb126e604bbca9fcf4dad20290042b2f8e41fdb570e14434f0fc6131dda20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 59c | 593.22$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.22 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 570.72$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.12 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 41c | 492.68$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 59c | 390$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 274.85$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.22 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 47c | 259.57$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.57 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 41c | 215$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…7bf8backed Under | 44c | 199.09$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 56c | 179.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.26 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…1ac2backed Over | 56c | 157.57$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 61c | 156.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…6fd3backed Over | 53c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 43c | 94.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 41c | 81.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 40c | 69.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd0…7005backed Over | 57c | 68.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 57c | 53.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 45c | 50.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e40…34a4backed Over | 56c | 41.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 32c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 41c | 31.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Dynamo vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Houston Dynamo vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.